Key takeaway: A drop in shoplifting numbers doesn’t mean falling fraud losses overall, it may just mean the fraud has moved to phone scams, loyalty programs, and gift cards instead.
Retailers reported a 69% increase in phone scams and a 51% increase in loyalty fraud over the past year, even as traditional shoplifting incidents fell for the first time in several years, according to a new National Retail Federation study.
NRF’s “Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2026” report, based on a survey of 66 retail companies representing 143 brands and roughly $1.7 trillion in 2025 sales, found shoplifting incidents down 12.4% and overall merchandise theft down 8.1% compared with the prior year. The survey was conducted online between February and April 2026, and 63% of participating companies had more than 10,000 employees.
While in-store theft eased, other fraud types climbed. Retailers reported a 69% increase in phone-based scams, a 51% increase in loyalty program fraud, and a 42% increase in gift card theft or fraud. Repeat offenders were also cited more often, up 50%, alongside a 40% rise in organized retail crime incidents and a 37% increase in walkout or pushout theft, according to NRF.
“After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes,” said David Johnston, NRF’s vice president for asset protection and retail operations. Read Hayes of the Loss Prevention Research Council said that “as these risks shift and shoplifting rates stabilize, the retail industry must confront the growing challenges of fraud and external theft.” Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions, said retailers “are leveraging data and connected technologies to combat retail crime.”
Why it matters: The data suggests fraud is migrating rather than disappearing, as in-store security investments make shoplifting harder, criminals are shifting to scams and program abuse that don’t require physically entering a store. Merchants who’ve focused loss-prevention budgets on in-store theft may want to check whether phone-based scams, loyalty program abuse, and gift card fraud are getting proportionate attention and controls.
Source: National Retail Federation; PYMNTS