Key takeaway: Merchants should expect non-delivery disputes to outnumber fraud disputes on peak shopping weekends and to arrive weeks later, so delivery proof and shipment tracking records matter as much as fraud screening.
Chargeflow reported that non-delivery claims overtook fraud claims as the largest chargeback category on the busiest shopping weekend, a pattern the company says appeared in 2023, 2024 and 2025, according to SecurityBrief.
The findings come from Chargeflow Data Lab, the company’s new research unit, which analyzed about 3 million disputes across three peak trading seasons. From Black Friday to Cyber Monday 2025, 34.7% of chargebacks cited non-delivery, compared with 19.9% in a normal week. Over the same period, fraud fell to 27.2% of chargebacks from 37.8%.
Timing also shifted. For orders placed over Black Friday weekend 2025, the median dispute was filed 25 days after purchase, and nine in 10 were filed within 64 days, around the end of January. Daily dispute volume in January ran about 1.4 times the November rate. Chargeflow also found that items not received disputes that reached a decision were won about 1.5 times as often when backed by stronger evidence.
Chargeflow released the data alongside Prevent 2.0, an update to its Shopify tool that screens every order after checkout and before fulfillment. The company says the new model catches 10 times more fraud and abuse than the previous version. It draws on dispute data from more than 20,000 merchants to flag buyers who have disputed orders at other stores, and to spot delivery patterns such as different names tied to the same shipping address. Pricing is $0.10 per scanned transaction after an introductory allocation for new users.
“Every merchant sees only its own chargebacks. Chargeflow sees them across more than 20,000 merchants,” said Avia Chen, Chargeflow co-founder and Chief Product Officer and Chief Marketing Officer.
Why it matters: Peak-season chargeback exposure is moving from stolen-card fraud to delivery disputes that surface weeks after the sale. Merchants that match their evidence to the right chargeback reason code for non-delivery, and keep carrier tracking and proof of delivery on file, are better placed to win those disputes, and holiday dispute volume may land in January rather than November.
Sources: Chargeflow, and SecurityBrief US